freeforex: April 2012

Thursday, 19 April 2012

GBPUSD GOING DOWN AFTER SOME UP SWING

GBP/NZD

The NZD keeps stamping against the USD and gives the other currencies the opportunity to rise against it. The pair has created the "Cup & Handle" pattern under 1.96 and if the pair breaks through this resistance and the resistance of the 200 SMA, it might jump to the psychological number of 2.0. However, as we always warn in these kinds of situations, it is dangerous to buy a currency in extreme levels and sometimes it is better to wait for a false-break & reversal rather than taking a chance with deep stop-loss order.

GBP/JPY

The support that the USD got at 80.0 against the JPY was as strong as we estimated and the Yen weakened to 81.2 against the USD. This helped the pound to rise against the Yen and the weekly chart gives an interesting point of view regarding the pair GBP/JPY. The trend is clearly bullish and the arrangement of the candlesticks, as well as the fact that the pair reached 40% Fibonacci levels, indicate that a bullish reversal is about to occur, if the pound crosses above the weekly high at 130.50. A successful break-up of this pick might take the pair above 133.0 again. Another supporting element for the pair is the fact that the 20 EMA is about to cross above the 50 EMA, which means that the prices are increasing.

Daily Analysis - 19.04.2012

GBP/USD

The correction in the stock markets did not help the USD against most of the major currencies that continued strengthening against the American dollar. The pound investors were encouraged by improving economic data regarding the British economy, such as lower unemployment rate and lower unemployment claims.

On the technical aspect, the pound is trying to break through the strong resistance at 1.60, which it has failed to do during the last couple of months. If it succeeds, we might see the pair around the 7-months high at 1.6150. However, if it fails, the seller might take the pound under 1.59 again.